CNN did a phone poll, surveying just over 1,000 people regarding who they would vote for in various hypothetical matchups between Obama and the Republican candidates. And they did a series of months. For consideration here, I will look at the everyone who participated (including people that are not registered voters).
- Against Bachmann, Obama won 51% to 45% in August 2011. In December 2011, Obama increased his support to 58% and Bachmann dropped to 37%.
- Facing up against Gingerich, in April 2010 Obama won 57% to 41%. In December 2011, Obama stayed the same, and Gingerich dropped to 39%.
- In April/May 2011, facing up against Ron Paul, Obama won 53% to 43%. In December 2011, Ron Paul’s percentage stayed the same, Obama’s raised to 54%.
- In August 2011, Obama was leading Rick Perry 51% to 45%. In December 2011 Obama increased to 59% and Perry dropped to 37%.
- In April 2010, Obama was leading against Romney 54% to 43%. In December 2011, Romney preserved his percentage, while Obama dropped to 53%.
Take these results with a grain of salt, but still. If this poll is at all representative, things do not look good for the Republicans. According to this poll, as of December the Republicans best shot at Obama is Ron Paul (losing out to Obama 43%-53%) and the second would be Mitt Romney (losing out to Obama 43%-54%). And all the other candidates would be projected to get less than 40% against Obama.
I think to some people hoping to see a Republican president in 2012, beating Obama has been a given, and it was just a matter of who would replace him. I think recent happenings and recent data shows that most likely, the road to the presidency will not be so easy for the Republicans.
I, as always, with a bit of curiosity and interest will be rooting for Ron Paul!